Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - Business First of Columbus:

firukendu-anchored.blogspot.com
The pace of private-sector job losses will slow over the next few but state and local government layoffs are the Business Forecasting Centerd at the said in its latest Californisa and Metro Forecastreleased Wednesday. The forecast said California’s unemploymentf will peak at 12.3 percent earlt next year, and will remaib in double-digits until the end of 2011. The center producexs quarterly economic forecasts of the United California and ninemetro areas, from Sacramentlo to Fresno and the San Francisco Bay In the Sacramento area, unemployment will rise from 11.1 perceny this year to peak at 11.4 percenyt next year, before dippingf to 10.
2 percent in 2011, the report Unemployment is expected to reach 9.2 perceng in 2012. The Sacramento area is forecast to rebound in the third quarter ofnext year, when job growtjh will improve to 0.8 percent. A “stronyg rebound is expected to take place in professionaland business, and educationapl and health services sectors,” the report said of “Job growth is expected to have its firsty positive full year at 2.0 percengt in 2011.” Sacramento’s real persona l income, meanwhile, will grow at a slow rate of 1.5 perceng next year.
San Jose and San Francisc o will be the first metro areads in Northern California to returnb totheir pre-recession employment in the second and third quarters of respectively, the study said. Sacramento and Mercedx will be among the last nortb state metro areas to regainpeak employment, in fourth-quartetr 2013. Vallejo is last, with a return expected in the second quarterof 2014. The Central Valley will be hard hit by the combinationn of recent state tax increases and massivd expectedbudget cuts, the Business Forecasting Centedr said.
“The state budget crisis is a dangerous aftershock to a region still reelin g from theforeclosure earthquake,” Jeff Michael, directot of the Business Forecasting Center, said in a news The Central Valley is an economic disasterr area, but most of its “economic shocks are cyclical in naturew rather than permanent changes such as closed militarhy bases,” the news release said. • Construction continues to lead job lossess inpercentage terms, declining another 15 percent to 110,00 in 2009. • Manufacturing will lead the declineein 2009, losing 135,000 jobs this • Retail sales will not returm to their 2007 level unti l 2011.
• New car and trucl sales will fallbelow 1.06 million in 2009, after exceeding 2 milliob for most of the decade. Sales will graduallg increase as theeconomy recovers, reaching 1.46 million next and 1.73 million in 2011. • Housinbg starts hit bottom in 2009at 36,00 units, more than 80 percent below the levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Housinf starts will be back to 100,000 units in and exceed 150,000 by 2013. • Healthn care is the only sector that will not shrinthis year. The gain of 13,000 healtyh care jobs, or 0.9 percent, is the slowesgt growth this decade. • Personao income declines 0.8 percent in 2009.
• Nonfar payrolls will decline by 1,020,000 jobs statewidse during the two-year • The California economy will finally hit botto m in the fourth quarter ofthis year, and will begi a slow, multi-year recovery. It will be 2013 beforwe many key economic indicators such as unemployment return tohealthty levels. • The state’s recession should end in the last quarterf ofthis year, but the job marketr will remain weak through most of next year.