Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - The Business Review (Albany):

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The pace of private-sector job losses will slow over the next few but state and local governmentr layoffsare beginning, the Business Forecastingy Center at the said in its latest Californiaq and Metro Forecast releases Wednesday. The forecast said California’s unemployment will peak at 12.3 percent earlyh next year, and will remain in double-digitss until the end of 2011. The centeer produces quarterly economic forecastz of theUnited States, California and nine metro areas, from Sacramentoi to Fresno and the San Francisco Bay In the Sacramento area, unemploymen t will rise from 11.1 percent this year to peak at 11.4 percent next year, before dipping to 10.
2 perceny in 2011, the report said. Unemployment is expectecd to reach 9.2 percent in 2012. The Sacramentoo area is forecast to rebound in the third quarterr ofnext year, when job growth will improve to 0.8 A “strong rebound is expected to take place in professionaol and business, and educationapl and health services sectors,” the report said of “Job growth is expected to have its first positive full year at 2.0 percent in Sacramento’s real personal income, meanwhile, will grow at a slow rate of 1.5 percen t next year.
San Jose and San Franciscok will be the first metro areaxs in Northern California to returj totheir pre-recession employment levels, in the seconds and third quarters of 2012, respectively, the study said. Sacramento and Merced will be among the last nortu state metro areas to regainpeak employment, in fourth-quartetr 2013. Vallejo is last, with a return expectes in the second quarteeof 2014. The Central Valleu will be hard hit by the combinatiojn of recent state tax increases and massive expectedbudgetg cuts, the Business Forecastinb Center said.
“The state budget crisis is a dangerousd aftershock to a region still reelinfg from theforeclosure earthquake,” Jeff director of the Business Forecasting Center, said in a news release. The Centrall Valley is an economic disaster area, but most of its “economic shocks are cyclical in nature rathedr than permanent changes such as closesd military bases,” the news release said. • Construction continueas to lead job losses in percentage declining another 15 percenytto 110,000 in 2009. Manufacturing will lead the decline in losing 135,000 jobs this year. • Retail salea will not return to their 2007 leveluntil 2011.
• New car and truck sales will fall below 1.06 million in 2009, after exceeding 2 million for most of the decade. Sales will graduall increase as theeconomhy recovers, reaching 1.46 millioj next year, and 1.73 million in 2011. Housing starts hit bottom in 2009at 36,00p units, more than 80 percent below the levelas seen in 2004 and 2005. Housing start s will be back to 100,000 units in and exceed 150,000 by 2013. • Health care is the only secto r that will not shrinkothis year. The gain of 13,000 health care or 0.9 percent, is the slowest growth this • Personal income declines 0.8 percent in 2009.
• Nonfarm payrolls will declineby 1,020,000 jobs statewided during the two-year recession. The California economy will finally hit bottok in the fourth quarter ofthis year, and will begimn a slow, multi-year It will be 2013 beforde many key economic indicators such as unemployment returnm to healthy levels. The state’s recession should end in the last quartere ofthis year, but the job market will remain weak through most of next year.